Direct answer
A binary outcome market pays a fixed amount if the chosen outcome resolves correctly and pays nothing if it resolves incorrectly. Traders should compare contract price to their own probability estimate, then account for fees, spreads, and resolution risk.
Checklist before trading
- What exactly causes the outcome to settle Yes or No?
- What is the expiry or settlement time?
- What asset is used for collateral and settlement?
- How wide is the order book spread?
- What happens if the event is ambiguous or delayed?
Outcome market data
This uses public Hyperliquid outcome data and available side prices. Treat implied probability as market-price context, not a forecast or trade recommendation. Recent-change context appears only when enough saved price history exists for the same side.
Probability-change context is using 14400 saved outcome price records. Newest saved price: 2026-08-07T08:17:37.194Z.
16 currently priced outcome sides matched saved history across 534 price times. Largest absolute move: Recurring Yes +17.2 pts. This is descriptive price history, not a forecast.
Saved prices exist, but no currently priced outcome side has enough matching stored points to draw.
Recurring
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 52.8% to 70.0% since 2026-08-07T08:17:37.194Z.
Recurring
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 53.8% to 62.0% since 2026-08-07T08:17:37.194Z.
Recurring
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 52.3% to 67.1% since 2026-08-07T08:17:37.194Z.
Recurring
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 59.5% to 72.5% since 2026-08-07T08:17:37.194Z.
Recurring Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-08-07T08:17:37.194Z.
Recurring Named Outcome
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-08-07T08:17:37.194Z.
Recurring Named Outcome
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-08-07T08:17:37.194Z.
Recurring Named Outcome
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-08-07T08:17:37.194Z.
Binary outcome EV calculator
Bounded loss is not the same thing as low risk. Small changes in your probability estimate can flip the expected value of a binary contract.
Odds and probability converter
A binary outcome trading at 0.60 roughly maps to a 60% breakeven probability before fees, spreads, and settlement risk.
Related tools
What is HIP-4?
Learn the protocol-level framing for outcome markets.
Options basics
Compare binary outcomes with calls, puts, and payoff diagrams.
Breakeven calculator
Translate binary price into a probability hurdle.
Data dictionary
Review market price, spread, stale state, and liquidity definitions.
Sources and corrections
See how outcome-market claims and source freshness are reviewed.
Sources
- Hyperliquid Docs: Info endpointAccessed 2026-05-04Supports: Public info endpoint families used for market, book, candle, account, and portfolio tooling.
- Hyperliquid Docs: Asset IDsAccessed 2026-05-05
- Hyperliquid Docs: Contract specificationsAccessed 2026-05-30Supports: Perpetual contract units, USDC margining, margin fractions, funding versus expiration, and order value limits.
- QuickNode Docs: Hyperliquid outcome market metadataAccessed 2026-05-30Supports: Hyperliquid outcome metadata endpoint shape and technical interpretation boundaries.
- Hyperliquid Docs: RisksAccessed 2026-05-30Supports: Smart contract, L1, market liquidity, oracle manipulation, and open-interest cap risk framing.