HIP-4 explainer

What Is HIP-4? Hyperliquid Outcome Markets Explained

HIP-4 brings outcome-market primitives to Hyperliquid. Searchers often compare it with Polymarket, but the key idea is a bounded payoff contract that settles based on a defined outcome.

Last updated: 2026-06-02Last reviewed: 2026-06-02
Product boundary
Outcome markets can look like options or prediction markets, but the exact payoff, collateral, settlement source, and market rules decide the real risk.

Direct answer

HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's outcome-market framework. Instead of a perpetual contract with funding and liquidation mechanics, an outcome market is built around a defined event or condition and a bounded payoff. It can resemble a prediction market in search results, but the contract rules, settlement source, collateral, and venue access decide the actual risk.

What makes outcomes different

  • The payoff is bounded by the contract terms.
  • There is usually a defined expiry or settlement event.
  • The market price can be read as an implied probability only after considering fees, spreads, and settlement risk.
  • There is no simple one-to-one mapping between outcome markets and vanilla options.

Outcome market data

This uses public Hyperliquid outcome data and available side prices. Treat implied probability as market-price context, not a forecast or trade recommendation. Recent-change context appears only when enough saved price history exists for the same side.

Price history
Price history available
14400 price records
14400 live, 0 fallback
Price history fresh - 0.4h old
Usable price history - 530 captures

Probability-change context is using 14400 saved outcome price records. Newest saved price: 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z.

Recent price change
Recent price change summary
530 captures
16 matched sides
639.4h window

16 currently priced outcome sides matched saved history across 530 price times. Largest absolute move: Recurring Yes -3.0 pts. This is descriptive price history, not a forecast.

Probability history
Stored probability history
530 capture times
639.0h window

Implied probability from saved mid prices across 530 capture times over 639.0 hours. Descriptive stored price history, not a forecast.

Recurring Named Outcome · Yes2.0% (-48.0 pts)
21h agolatest
Recurring Named Outcome · No98.0% (+48.0 pts)
21h agolatest
Recurring Named Outcome · No96.0% (+46.0 pts)
21h agolatest
Recurring Named Outcome · Yes4.1% (-45.9 pts)
21h agolatest
Recurring · Yes1.3% (-41.9 pts)
21h agolatest
Recurring · No98.7% (+41.9 pts)
21h agolatest
Outcome #1017

Recurring

Yes#10170 0.9%Earlier saved price 1.0% at 0.009845 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155ZNo#10171 99.1%Earlier saved price 99.0% at 0.990155 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z
Implied probability
Yes: 0.9% at 0.008945
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
-0.1 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 1.0% to 0.9% since 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z.

class
priceBinary
underlying
BTC
expiry
20260807-0600
targetPrice
64869
period
1d
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1018

Recurring

Yes#10180 5.0%Earlier saved price 8.0% at 0.080005 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155ZNo#10181 95.0%Earlier saved price 92.0% at 0.919995 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z
Implied probability
Yes: 5.0% at 0.050005
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
-3.0 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 8.0% to 5.0% since 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z.

class
priceBinary
underlying
ETH
expiry
20260807-0600
targetPrice
1913.4
period
1d
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1019

Recurring

Yes#10190 1.3%Earlier saved price 1.3% at 0.013495 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155ZNo#10191 98.7%Earlier saved price 98.7% at 0.986505 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z
Implied probability
Yes: 1.3% at 0.01266
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
-0.1 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 1.3% to 1.3% since 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z.

class
priceBinary
underlying
SOL
expiry
20260807-0600
targetPrice
74.202
period
1d
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1020

Recurring

Yes#10200 3.0%Earlier saved price 4.5% at 0.045 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155ZNo#10201 97.0%Earlier saved price 95.5% at 0.955 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z
Implied probability
Yes: 3.0% at 0.03
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
-1.5 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 4.5% to 3.0% since 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z.

class
priceBinary
underlying
HYPE
expiry
20260807-0600
targetPrice
56.443
period
1d
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1021

Recurring Fallback

Yes#10210 50.0%Earlier saved price 50.0% at 0.5 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155ZNo#10211 50.0%Earlier saved price 50.0% at 0.5 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z
Implied probability
Yes: 50.0% at 0.5
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
0.0 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z.

Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1022

Recurring Named Outcome

Yes#10220 1.8%Earlier saved price 2.0% at 0.019995 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155ZNo#10221 98.2%Earlier saved price 98.0% at 0.980005 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z
Implied probability
Yes: 1.8% at 0.017995
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
-0.2 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 2.0% to 1.8% since 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z.

index
0
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1023

Recurring Named Outcome

Yes#10230 69.9%Earlier saved price 69.9% at 0.69901 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155ZNo#10231 30.1%Earlier saved price 30.1% at 0.30099 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z
Implied probability
Yes: 69.9% at 0.69901
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
0.0 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 69.9% to 69.9% since 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z.

index
1
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1024

Recurring Named Outcome

Yes#10240 4.0%Earlier saved price 4.0% at 0.0405 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155ZNo#10241 96.0%Earlier saved price 96.0% at 0.9595 on 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z
Implied probability
Yes: 4.0% at 0.0405
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
0.0 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 4.0% to 4.0% since 2026-08-07T03:17:37.155Z.

index
2
Binary EVOdds converter
Live data - updated 0s ago
Risk notice
Outcome markets are high-risk event contracts. A market price is not a verified probability, the full cost can be lost, and resolution, settlement, liquidity, fees, and eligibility rules may alter the real risk.

Related tools

Outcome markets

See binary payoff examples and the current live metadata.

Binary EV calculator

Convert price and probability into expected value.

Options basics

Learn why options and outcomes are related but not identical.

Odds converter

Translate odds and probabilities into decimal outcome prices.

Sources