Direct answer
HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's outcome-market framework. Instead of a perpetual contract with funding and liquidation mechanics, an outcome market is built around a defined event or condition and a bounded payoff. It can resemble a prediction market in search results, but the contract rules, settlement source, collateral, and venue access decide the actual risk.
What makes outcomes different
- The payoff is bounded by the contract terms.
- There is usually a defined expiry or settlement event.
- The market price can be read as an implied probability only after considering fees, spreads, and settlement risk.
- There is no simple one-to-one mapping between outcome markets and vanilla options.
Outcome market data
This uses public Hyperliquid outcome data and available side prices. Treat implied probability as market-price context, not a forecast or trade recommendation. Recent-change context appears only when enough saved price history exists for the same side.
Probability-change context is using 14400 saved outcome price records. Newest saved price: 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
250 currently priced outcome sides matched saved history across 57 price times. Largest absolute move: Egypt Yes +80.9 pts. This is descriptive price history, not a forecast.
Implied probability from saved mid prices across 57 capture times over 60.0 hours. Descriptive stored price history, not a forecast.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Algeria
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Argentina
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 11.7% to 11.7% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Australia
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.6% to 0.6% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Austria
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.3% to 0.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Belgium
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 1.2% to 1.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Brazil
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 6.1% to 6.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Canada
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.4% to 0.4% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Cape Verde
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Colombia
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 1.6% to 1.6% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Congo DR
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Croatia
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.6% to 0.6% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Curacao
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.0% to 0.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Czechia
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Ecuador
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.3% to 0.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Egypt
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.2% to 0.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
England
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 12.5% to 12.5% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
France
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 19.8% to 19.8% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Germany
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 5.8% to 5.8% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Ghana
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.3% to 0.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Haiti
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Iran
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Iraq
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.3% to 0.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Ivory Coast
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.7% to 0.7% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Japan
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 2.2% to 2.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Jordan
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.3% to 0.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Mexico
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 1.6% to 1.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Morocco
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 2.4% to 2.4% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Netherlands
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 6.3% to 6.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
New Zealand
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Norway
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 2.4% to 2.4% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Panama
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Paraguay
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Portugal
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 6.7% to 6.7% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Qatar
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.2% to 0.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Saudi Arabia
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.0% to 0.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Scotland
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Senegal
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 1.0% to 1.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
South Africa
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
South Korea
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.3% to 0.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Spain
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 14.2% to 14.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Sweden
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.5% to 0.5% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Switzerland
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 1.1% to 1.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Tunisia
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Turkey
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.0% to 0.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
USA
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 3.9% to 3.9% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Uruguay
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.4% to 0.4% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Uzbekistan
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 0.1% to 0.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
New Zealand
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 49.9% to 0.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 31.4% to 0.5% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Egypt
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 19.0% to 100.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Argentina
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 65.8% to 66.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 22.5% to 22.5% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Austria
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 12.4% to 12.4% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
France
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 90.3% to 90.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 7.4% to 7.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Iraq
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 2.7% to 2.7% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Norway
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 42.7% to 42.8% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 27.2% to 27.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Senegal
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 29.7% to 29.7% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Jordan
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 15.7% to 15.7% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 22.6% to 22.6% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Algeria
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 62.4% to 62.7% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Panama
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 13.5% to 13.4% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 23.5% to 23.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Croatia
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 62.7% to 62.8% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
South Africa
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 16.2% to 16.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 24.0% to 24.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
South Korea
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 59.8% to 59.9% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Portugal
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 81.8% to 81.8% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 13.0% to 13.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Uzbekistan
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 5.4% to 5.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
No change
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 82.1% to 82.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Decrease
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 7.1% to 7.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Increase
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 17.3% to 17.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Colombia
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 64.1% to 64.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 23.0% to 23.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Congo DR
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 13.1% to 13.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 67.7% to 67.7% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 19.6% to 19.6% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Qatar
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 13.1% to 13.1% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Morocco
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 82.2% to 82.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 12.2% to 12.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Haiti
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 5.3% to 5.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Switzerland
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 39.5% to 39.5% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 31.6% to 31.6% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Canada
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 29.6% to 29.6% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Scotland
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 11.6% to 11.4% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 18.0% to 18.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Brazil
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 70.2% to 70.4% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
England
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 79.5% to 79.6% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 14.3% to 14.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Ghana
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 6.5% to 6.5% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Czechia
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 25.3% to 25.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Draw
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 23.5% to 23.4% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Mexico
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 51.0% to 51.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Below 3.8%
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 12.2% to 12.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Exactly 3.8%
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 26.5% to 26.5% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Above 3.8%
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 53.0% to 53.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Recurring
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 76.3% to 31.3% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Recurring
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 72.6% to 45.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Recurring
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 87.7% to 69.2% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Recurring
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 9.0% to 0.8% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Recurring Fallback
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Recurring Named Outcome
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 9.4% to 0.9% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Recurring Named Outcome
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 89.9% to 96.4% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Recurring Named Outcome
Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.
Yes moved from 5.7% to 4.5% since 2026-06-22T02:17:11.653Z.
Related tools
Sources
- Hyperliquid Docs: Info endpointAccessed 2026-05-04Supports: Public info endpoint families used for market, book, candle, account, and portfolio tooling.
- Hyperliquid Docs: Contract specificationsAccessed 2026-05-30Supports: Perpetual contract units, USDC margining, margin fractions, funding versus expiration, and order value limits.
- QuickNode Docs: Hyperliquid outcome market metadataAccessed 2026-05-30Supports: Hyperliquid outcome metadata endpoint shape and technical interpretation boundaries.
- Hyperliquid Docs: RisksAccessed 2026-05-30Supports: Smart contract, L1, market liquidity, oracle manipulation, and open-interest cap risk framing.