HIP-4 explainer

What Is HIP-4? Hyperliquid Outcome Markets Explained

HIP-4 brings outcome-market primitives to Hyperliquid. Searchers often compare it with Polymarket, but the key idea is a bounded payoff contract that settles based on a defined outcome.

Last updated: 2026-06-02Last reviewed: 2026-06-02
Product boundary
Outcome markets can look like options or prediction markets, but the exact payoff, collateral, settlement source, and market rules decide the real risk.

Direct answer

HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's outcome-market framework. Instead of a perpetual contract with funding and liquidation mechanics, an outcome market is built around a defined event or condition and a bounded payoff. It can resemble a prediction market in search results, but the contract rules, settlement source, collateral, and venue access decide the actual risk.

What makes outcomes different

  • The payoff is bounded by the contract terms.
  • There is usually a defined expiry or settlement event.
  • The market price can be read as an implied probability only after considering fees, spreads, and settlement risk.
  • There is no simple one-to-one mapping between outcome markets and vanilla options.

Outcome market data

This uses public Hyperliquid outcome data and available side prices. Treat implied probability as market-price context, not a forecast or trade recommendation. Recent-change context appears only when enough saved price history exists for the same side.

Price history
Price history available
14400 price records
14400 live, 0 fallback
Price history fresh - 0.7h old
Usable price history - 531 captures

Probability-change context is using 14400 saved outcome price records. Newest saved price: 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z.

Recent price change
Recent price change summary
531 captures
16 matched sides
640.7h window

16 currently priced outcome sides matched saved history across 531 price times. Largest absolute move: Recurring Yes -0.5 pts. This is descriptive price history, not a forecast.

Probability history
Stored probability history
531 capture times
640.0h window

Implied probability from saved mid prices across 531 capture times over 640.0 hours. Descriptive stored price history, not a forecast.

Recurring Named Outcome · Yes1.4% (-48.6 pts)
22h agolatest
Recurring Named Outcome · No98.6% (+48.6 pts)
22h agolatest
Recurring Named Outcome · No96.0% (+46.0 pts)
22h agolatest
Recurring Named Outcome · Yes4.1% (-45.9 pts)
22h agolatest
Recurring · Yes1.0% (-43.5 pts)
22h agolatest
Recurring · No99.0% (+43.5 pts)
22h agolatest
Outcome #1017

Recurring

Yes#10170 0.1%Earlier saved price 0.5% at 0.004745 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227ZNo#10171 99.9%Earlier saved price 99.5% at 0.995255 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z
Implied probability
Yes: 0.1% at 0.001005
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
-0.4 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 0.5% to 0.1% since 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z.

class
priceBinary
underlying
BTC
expiry
20260807-0600
targetPrice
64869
period
1d
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1018

Recurring

Yes#10180 2.0%Earlier saved price 2.0% at 0.020005 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227ZNo#10181 98.0%Earlier saved price 98.0% at 0.979995 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z
Implied probability
Yes: 2.0% at 0.019995
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
0.0 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 2.0% to 2.0% since 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z.

class
priceBinary
underlying
ETH
expiry
20260807-0600
targetPrice
1913.4
period
1d
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1019

Recurring

Yes#10190 0.8%Earlier saved price 1.3% at 0.01266 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227ZNo#10191 99.2%Earlier saved price 98.7% at 0.98734 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z
Implied probability
Yes: 0.8% at 0.007995
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
-0.5 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 1.3% to 0.8% since 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z.

class
priceBinary
underlying
SOL
expiry
20260807-0600
targetPrice
74.202
period
1d
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1020

Recurring

Yes#10200 1.1%Earlier saved price 1.0% at 0.01029 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227ZNo#10201 98.9%Earlier saved price 99.0% at 0.98971 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z
Implied probability
Yes: 1.1% at 0.01094
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
+0.1 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 1.0% to 1.1% since 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z.

class
priceBinary
underlying
HYPE
expiry
20260807-0600
targetPrice
56.443
period
1d
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1021

Recurring Fallback

Yes#10210 50.0%Earlier saved price 50.0% at 0.5 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227ZNo#10211 50.0%Earlier saved price 50.0% at 0.5 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z
Implied probability
Yes: 50.0% at 0.5
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
0.0 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 50.0% to 50.0% since 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z.

Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1022

Recurring Named Outcome

Yes#10220 1.3%Earlier saved price 1.4% at 0.014495 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227ZNo#10221 98.7%Earlier saved price 98.6% at 0.985505 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z
Implied probability
Yes: 1.3% at 0.013495
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
-0.1 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 1.4% to 1.3% since 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z.

index
0
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1023

Recurring Named Outcome

Yes#10230 69.9%Earlier saved price 69.9% at 0.69901 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227ZNo#10231 30.1%Earlier saved price 30.1% at 0.30099 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z
Implied probability
Yes: 69.9% at 0.69901
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
0.0 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 69.9% to 69.9% since 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z.

index
1
Binary EVOdds converter
Outcome #1024

Recurring Named Outcome

Yes#10240 4.0%Earlier saved price 4.0% at 0.0405 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227ZNo#10241 96.0%Earlier saved price 96.0% at 0.9595 on 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z
Implied probability
Yes: 4.0% at 0.0405
Mid-price context only; spread, fees, liquidity, and settlement may alter the usable probability.
Price quality
Balanced pair

Yes and No mids sum to 100.0%, so the displayed probabilities are internally close.

Probability change
0.0 pts since earlier price

Yes moved from 4.0% to 4.0% since 2026-08-07T04:17:37.227Z.

index
2
Binary EVOdds converter
Live data - updated 0s ago
Risk notice
Outcome markets are high-risk event contracts. A market price is not a verified probability, the full cost can be lost, and resolution, settlement, liquidity, fees, and eligibility rules may alter the real risk.

Related tools

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Odds converter

Translate odds and probabilities into decimal outcome prices.

Sources