Calculator

Binary Outcome EV Calculator

Compare the contract price with your probability estimate.

Last updated: 2026-05-04Last reviewed: 2026-08-21

Subjective scenario

Compare your estimate with the contract price

Your probability estimate is a manual assumption, not a HypeBasis forecast or market signal.
Probability source
Your estimate
Settlement
Not modeled
Fees and spread
Excluded
Scenario EV
$13.00
Break-even probability
42.0%
Cost and max loss
$42.00
Probability-weighted payout
$55.00
Max profit
$58.00
Estimate minus break-even
13.0 pp

Scenario EV is not a recommendation. A small probability error can flip the result, and the entire cost can be lost. Check exact settlement, resolution, liquidity, fees, and eligibility first.

Methodology and assumptionsformulas, limits, and FAQ

How this works

The EV calculator compares a binary contract price with the trader's own probability estimate. It is a sensitivity tool, not a prediction model. Use it after reading the market's exact settlement terms, because a clean payoff formula cannot remove ambiguity, delay, or liquidity risk.

Cost

Contract price multiplied by number of contracts.

Expected value

Estimated probability multiplied by maximum payout, minus the cost of the contracts.

Breakeven probability

Contract price divided by payout if correct, shown as a percentage.

Assumptions

  • The payout if correct is entered manually.
  • The user's probability estimate is independent and may be wrong.
  • Fees, spread, liquidity, settlement timing, and resolution risk are not included.

Do not ignore

  • A positive expected value number can disappear if the probability estimate is optimistic.
  • Capped downside still means the entire cost can be lost.
  • Outcome contract mechanics depend on the exact market and settlement rules.

Questions

What does positive EV mean here?

It means the entered probability estimate is high enough to exceed the entered market price before fees and other frictions. It is not a guarantee.

Why does the price resemble probability?

For a binary payout, a 0 to 1 price can resemble a breakeven probability before fees, spread, liquidity, and settlement risk.

Can this price a real Hyperliquid outcome market?

It can help reason about the payoff, but the actual market's settlement, liquidity, and fees must be checked separately.

What makes the estimate fragile?

The probability input is subjective, and small changes can flip expected value. Treat the output as a scenario check, not a forecast.

Next checks

Outcome screener

Review live outcome metadata, implied probability, and price-quality context.

Odds converter

Translate odds and probability into decimal outcome-price language.

HIP-4 explainer

Read the protocol-level context for Hyperliquid outcome markets.

Risk notice
Outcome markets are high-risk event contracts. A market price is not a verified probability, the full cost can be lost, and resolution, settlement, liquidity, fees, and eligibility rules may alter the real risk.

Sources

3 references · Expand