Calculator

Options And Outcome Breakeven Calculator

Find the price needed to cover the modeled cost.

Last updated: 2026-05-05Last reviewed: 2026-08-21

Hurdle check

Find the simple break-even point

Product type
Formula
Strike + premium
Output unit
USD price
Friction
Excluded
Break-even at expiry
$104
Max loss
$4.00
Premium per contract
$4.00

Break-even is only a simplified hurdle. Fees, spread, liquidity, expiry, volatility, funding, and settlement rules can move the real threshold.

Methodology and assumptionsformulas, limits, and FAQ

How this works

The breakeven calculator separates two ideas that often get mixed together: a vanilla option's underlying price breakeven and a binary outcome contract's probability breakeven.

Long call breakeven

Strike price plus premium.

Long put breakeven

Strike price minus premium, floored at zero.

Binary outcome breakeven

Contract price divided by payout if correct, shown as a probability.

Assumptions

  • The option modes model long options only.
  • The binary outcome mode assumes a capped payout entered by the user.
  • Contract multiplier is user supplied for option max-loss estimates.

Do not ignore

  • Simple breakeven does not include fees, spreads, liquidity, funding, tax, or settlement disputes.
  • An option can reach the entered breakeven after expiry or after liquidity has disappeared.
  • A binary contract can look cheap and still have negative expected value if the true probability is lower than price implies.

Questions

Is breakeven the same as expected value?

No. Breakeven is the hurdle where a simplified payoff stops losing before friction. Expected value also needs a probability estimate and a view on the full payout distribution.

Why does binary breakeven show probability?

For a capped binary payout, the price divided by payout is the win probability needed to break even before fees, spread, liquidity, and settlement risk.

Does this model implied volatility?

No. It shows simple expiry-style hurdles. Implied volatility, time decay, and changing option prices require separate model assumptions.

Next checks

Options payoff

Model long call and long put payoff beside the breakeven hurdle.

Binary EV

Compare binary price with your own probability estimate.

Data dictionary

Review terms like spread, stale data, implied probability, and liquidity.

Risk notice
Options and outcome markets are high-risk payoff contracts. Buyers can lose the full premium or contract cost, and breakeven estimates can fail when volatility, time decay, fees, spreads, liquidity, resolution, or settlement rules differ from the model.

Sources

3 references · Expand