Hyperliquid HIP-4 Outcome Markets: How They Work
How HIP-4 outcome markets work on Hyperliquid: Yes and No sides, bounded payoffs, settlement, and why a price is not simply a probability.
Direct answer
HIP-4 outcome markets are bounded-payoff contracts that settle on a defined outcome, traded as Yes and No sides. A price can be read as an implied probability only after accounting for fees, spreads, and settlement risk. Maximum loss is bounded by what you paid, but the market can be illiquid and the settlement rule matters more than the price.
In short
- 1An outcome contract pays out based on a defined result, with a bounded payoff.
- 2Price is not a clean probability once fees, spread, and settlement risk are included.
- 3Always read the settlement question and expiry before trading.
What is an outcome market?
An outcome contract resolves to a fixed result depending on whether a stated event happens. Each question has Yes and No sides with their own prices. Unlike a perp, the payoff is bounded by the contract's terms, so read the collateral and settlement rules rather than assuming perp mechanics.
Is the price a probability?
Prediction-market prices are commonly framed as market-assigned probabilities. A 60-cent Yes implies roughly 60%, but spread, fees, thin liquidity, and settlement risk all distort that. Treat it as a rough guide.
Why does settlement matter most?
The contract pays on the defined resolution, not on what you meant by the question. Read the target, expiry, and resolution source. Ambiguity there is the main risk beyond price.
Where can I see live contracts?
Public outcome metadata and side prices are available from the info API, and the outcome board on this site shows targets, expiry, side prices, and data freshness. It is read-only and does not recommend any contract.
Example: reading a Yes price
Say a Yes side trades at 0.60 and the No side at 0.42. They sum to 1.02, so a 2-cent spread or fee sits in the pair. Reading 60% as the true probability would ignore that, and the real implied figure is closer to 58.8% after normalising.
If the contract pays 1.00 on a Yes resolution, buying Yes at 0.60 gains 0.40 if it resolves Yes and loses the 0.60 if it resolves No (confirm the payout in the contract terms). The bounded payoff is clear, the settlement wording is the risk.
Common mistakes
Read the settlement rule, check liquidity, and size to the amount you can lose.
- Reading a price as a precise probability.
- Skipping the resolution wording.
- Trading thin contracts near expiry.
Practical next steps
Start with the outcome board and pick one contract to study without trading it. Write down the question, the target, the expiry, the resolution source, and the Yes and No prices. Calculate the implied probability after normalising the pair, then ask whether you have a view that differs from it and why. If the wording of the resolution leaves room for doubt, treat that as a cost. Only after that exercise does it make sense to consider size, and then only an amount you can afford to lose.
Next useful check
Apply this before you trade
Sources
3 references · ExpandCollapse
- Hyperliquid Docs: HIP-4 outcome marketsAccessed 2026-08-20Supports: HIP-4 outcome-market mechanics, deployment requirements, collateralization, settlement, identifiers, and risk framing.
- Hyperliquid Docs: Spot info endpointAccessed 2026-08-26Supports: Public spot token and pair metadata, rolling dayNtlVlm market contexts, outcomeMeta request and response fields, asset-context price and supply fields, tokenDetails maximum-supply definitions, and spotClearinghouseState balances.
- Kalshi Help Center: How are prices determined?Accessed 2026-05-04Supports: Prediction-market price-as-market-assigned-probability framing for odds and probability education.